TRADING • EXPECTANCY • EDGE
Trade Expectancy Calculator
Estimate the expected value per trade from your win rate and the average size of wins and losses.
EXPECTANCY PER TRADE—
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Estimate the expected value per trade from your win rate and the average size of wins and losses.
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Example: with a 45% win rate, an average win of $300 and an average loss of $150, p = 0.45 and EV = 0.45 × $300 − 0.55 × $150 = $135 − $82.50 = +$52.50 per trade. The breakeven win rate is $150 / ($300 + $150) = 150 / 450 = 33.3%, and the profit factor is $135 / $82.50 = 1.64.
Formula: EV = p × Average win − (1 − p) × Average loss, with p = win rate / 100. Breakeven win rate = Average loss / (Average win + Average loss). Profit factor = (p × Average win) / ((1 − p) × Average loss). When a number of trades is entered, projected P&L = EV × number of trades.
Method reviewed August 23, 2026.
Trade expectancy, also called expected value per trade, combines your win rate with the average size of your wins and losses into a single number. Enter your win rate and both averages; the calculator reports the per-trade expectancy, the breakeven win rate and the profit factor, and can project total P&L when you add a number of trades.
A positive expectancy means the system is expected to add value per trade in the long run, while a negative expectancy means it is expected to lose. The result is an average over many trades, not a promise for any single trade.
The average profit or loss per trade implied by win rate and the average size of wins and losses; a positive expectancy is required for a system to be profitable in the long run.
The win rate at which average wins and average losses cancel out; above it the expectancy turns positive.
No. It is an average over many trades; sequence, variance and drawdowns still matter (see Risk of Ruin).